Projections

 

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Player Projections

Back in the 1980ís, Bill James developed something he called ďThe Favorite ToyĒ.  Itís used to determine a playerís chance of reaching a statistical goal.  He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical playthings.  Most of them are so specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.

Hereís how it works.

There are four things that need to be considered:

1 The need points.  The number of points needed to each the goal.  This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or whatever stat is being considered.

2 The years remaining.  This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age).  Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5.  Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age.  I used the playerís age as of July 1st.

3 The established point level.  Itís three times the most recent seasonís point total plus two times the season before plus one times the season before that, divided by 6.  Sylvia Fowles, for example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in 2009.  ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her established point level.  Again, this could be the established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration.  Players in their first or second year get 0ís for the previous seasons in which they did not play.

4 The projected remaining points.  Multiply the years remaining by the established point level.  Once again, this could be rebounds or whatever.

Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining divided by need) - .5.  If the need and the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.  If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be 70%.

One special rule, a playerís chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.

Iím sure thatís as clear as mud.  Feel free to ask questions!


Points

Player 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000
Diana Taurasi 9693 9693 9693 9693 9693 97%
Tina Charles 7115 7115 7115 67% 5%
Candace Parker 6412 6412 44%
DeWanna Bonner 6184 6184 34%
Angel McCoughtry 5797
Nneka Ogwumike 5194 97% 40% 8%
Breanna Stewart 97% 97% 79% 49% 30% 17% 8% 1%
A'ja Wilson 97% 97% 73% 49% 33% 22% 13% 6% 1%
Jewell Loyd 97% 97% 52% 28% 13% 2%
Arike Ogunbowale 97% 80% 52% 34% 21% 12% 5%
Skylar Diggins 97% 66% 24% 4%
Kelsey Mitchell 97% 63% 39% 23% 12% 3%
Brittney Griner 97% 10%
Kayla McBride 88% 28% 4%
Ariel Atkins 82% 49% 29% 16% 7% 1%
Chelsea Gray 62% 24% 5%
Jackie Young 60% 36% 21% 10% 2%
Kelsey Plum 59% 32% 16% 5%
Kahleah Copper 57% 29% 13% 2%
Jonquel Jones 56% 25% 7%
Courtney Williams 54% 23% 7%
Elena Delle Donne 51%
Sabrina Ionescu 50% 30% 16% 7% 1%
Brionna Jones 44% 23% 10% 1%
Marina Mabrey 38% 20% 8%
Allisha Gray 35% 13% 1%
Teaira McCowan 26% 10%
Natasha Howard 24% 1%
Diamond DeShields 22% 4%
Dearica Hamby 19% 1%
Brittney Sykes 18% 1%
Rhyne Howard 15% 3%
Alyssa Thomas 13%
Emma Meesseman 12%
Aerial Powers 11%
Ezi Magbegor 10%
Courtney Vandersloot 9%
Tiffany Mitchell 9%
Aari McDonald 8%
Myisha Hines-Allen 5%
Azura Stevens 4%
Liz Cambage 3%
NaLyssa Smith 3%
Natisha Hiedeman 2%
Napheesa Collier 1%

 

Rebounds

Player 3000 4000 4006 5000 6000
Tina Charles 3640 82% 79%
Candace Parker 3370 7% 6%
A'ja Wilson 92% 40% 40% 16% 2%
Breanna Stewart 66% 18% 18%
Jonquel Jones 56% 11% 11%
Teaira McCowan 52% 18% 18% 1%
Nneka Ogwumike 48%
Brianna Turner 47% 16% 16% 1%
Dearica Hamby 27%
DeWanna Bonner 16%
Sabrina Ionescu 15%
Brionna Jones 12%
Alyssa Thomas 11%
Monique Billings 9%
Ezi Magbegor 5%
Courtney Williams 5%
Myisha Hines-Allen 2%
NaLyssa Smith 2%
Natasha Howard 2%

 

Assists

Player 2000 3000 3234
Courtney Vandersloot 2385 35% 11%
Diana Taurasi 2151
Chelsea Gray 75% 5%
Sabrina Ionescu 51% 12% 7%
Natasha Cloud 32%
Skylar Diggins 28%
Jordin Canada 25%
Jackie Young 15%
Kelsey Plum 10%
Jewell Loyd 5%
Arike Ogunbowale 2%

 

 

All these are current as of the end of the 2022 season.