Projections

 

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Back in the 1980ís, Bill James developed something he called ďThe Favorite ToyĒ.  Itís used to determine a playerís chance of reaching a statistical goal.  He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical playthings.  Most of them are so specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.

Hereís how it works.

There are four things that need to be considered:

1 The need points.  The number of points needed to each the goal.  This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or whatever stat is being considered.

2 The years remaining.  This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age).  Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5.  Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age.  I used the playerís age as of July 1st.

3 The established point level.  Itís three times the most recent seasonís point total plus two times the season before plus one times the season before that, divided by 6.  Sylvia Fowles, for example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in 2009.  ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her established point level.  Again, this could be the established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration.  Players in their first or second year get 0ís for the previous seasons in which they did not play.

4 The projected remaining points.  Multiply the years remaining by the established point level.  Once again, this could be rebounds or whatever.

Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining divided by need) - .5.  If the need and the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.  If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be 70%.

One special rule, a playerís chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.

Iím sure thatís as clear as mud.  Feel free to ask questions!


Points

Player 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000
Diana Taurasi 8549 8549 8549 8549 97% 15%
Cappie Pondexter 6811 6811 97%
Sue Bird 6154 6154 9%
Candice Dupree 6057 6057 58% 2%
Seimone Augustus 5836 97%
Angel McCoughtry 5468 97% 35% 1%
Tina Charles 5423 97% 97% 85% 47% 26% 12% 3%
Candace Parker 5113 97% 37% 7%
Maya Moore 97% 97% 97% 56% 30% 14% 3%
Breanna Stewart 97% 97% 86% 63% 47% 35% 25% 18% 12% 6% 2%
Nneka Ogwumike 97% 97% 54% 31% 16% 6%
Sylvia Fowles 97% 97% 36% 8%
Brittney Griner 97% 91% 55% 34% 20% 10% 3%
Jewell Loyd 97% 77% 52% 34% 22% 13% 6% 1%
Elena Delle Donne 97% 73% 40% 21% 9% 1%
Skylar Diggins 97% 63% 37% 20% 9% 1%
Tiffany Hayes 97% 53% 28% 12% 2%
DeWanna Bonner 97% 46% 11%
Kristi Toliver 97% 28% 3%
Kayla McBride 76% 44% 24% 12% 3%
Crystal Langhorne 72% 3%
Jasmine Thomas 55% 25% 8%
Chelsea Gray 55% 32% 17% 7%
Jonquel Jones 47% 27% 14% 4%
A'ja Wilson 39% 22% 11% 2%
Odyssey Sims 37% 16% 3%
Alana Beard 36%
Courtney Williams 29% 13% 3%
Liz Cambage 28% 11% 1%
Glory Johnson 27% 7%
Alyssa Thomas 27% 9%
Stefanie Dolson 26% 9%
Alex Bentley 25% 6%
Elizabeth Williams 22% 7%
Tiffany Mitchell 20% 6%
Allisha Gray 20% 6%
Courtney Vandersloot 15%
Renee Montgomery 15%
Brittney Sykes 13% 1%
Natasha Howard 11%
Chiney Ogwumike 10%
Monique Currie 10%
Bria Hartley 5%
Dearica Hamby 5%
Natalie Achonwa 4%
Erica Wheeler 4%
Diamond DeShields 3%
Kelsey Plum 2%
Allie Quigley 1%
Kahleah Copper 1%
Kelsey Mitchell 1%
Sugar Rodgers 1%

Rebounds

Player 3000 4000 5000 6000
Rebekkah Brunson 3356
Sylvia Fowles 3030 64% 6%
Tina Charles 97% 79% 18%
Candace Parker 97% 4%
Candice Dupree 97%
Breanna Stewart 84% 41% 19% 5%
Nneka Ogwumike 65% 16%
Jonquel Jones 48% 18% 2%
Brittney Griner 45% 9%
Glory Johnson 42% 6%
Elizabeth Williams 33% 7%
Crystal Langhorne 26%
Alyssa Thomas 23%
Maya Moore 14%
Kiah Stokes 14%
Elena Delle Donne 10%
DeWanna Bonner 8%
Jessica Breland 7%
Natalie Achonwa 5%
A'ja Wilson 4%
Stefanie Dolson 3%
Courtney Williams 2%

Assists

Player 2000 3000
Sue Bird 2831 97%
Courtney Vandersloot 97% 23%
Diana Taurasi 75%
Skylar Diggins 54% 6%
Jasmine Thomas 37%
Chelsea Gray 32%
Jewell Loyd 19%
Layshia Clarendon 12%
Odyssey Sims 11%
Erica Wheeler 6%
Kelsey Plum 4%
Kristi Toliver 3%
Breanna Stewart 2%
Candace Parker 2%
Alyssa Thomas 2%
Natasha Cloud 1%
Maya Moore 1%
Brittany Boyd 1%

Steals

Player 500 1000 1074
Alana Beard 697
Sancho Lyttle 621
Angel McCoughtry 597
Maya Moore 97% 6%
Nneka Ogwumike 97%
Candace Parker 75%
Jasmine Thomas 62%
Rebekkah Brunson 45%
Allisha Gray 45%
Alyssa Thomas 43%
Camille Little 28%
Gabby Williams 21%
Brittany Boyd 12%
Diana Taurasi 11%
Moriah Jefferson 6%

Blocks

Player 500 877 1000 1500
Brittney Griner 574 97% 82% 11%
Sylvia Fowles 572 3%
Candace Parker 501
Elizabeth Williams 97% 32% 19%
Breanna Stewart 97% 22% 12%
Jessica Breland 76%
Jonquel Jones 57% 3%
Natahsa Howard 47%
A'ja Wilson 20%
Liz Cambage 5%

 

All these are current as of the end of the 2018 season.