Back in the 1980’s, Bill James developed something he called “The Favorite
Toy”. It’s used to determine a player’s chance of reaching a
statistical goal. He developed it for baseball, along with
many other statistical playthings. Most of them are so
specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport,
but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.
Here’s how it works.
There are four things that need to be considered:
1 The need points. The number of points needed to each the
goal. This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or
whatever stat is being considered.
2 The years remaining. This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age). Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5. Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age. I used the player’s age as of July 1st.
3 The established point level. It’s three times the most
recent season’s point total plus two times the season before plus one times
the season before that, divided by 6. Sylvia Fowles, for
example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in
2009. ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her
established point level. Again, this could be the established
rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration. Players
in their first or second year get 0’s for the previous seasons in which they
did not play.
4 The projected remaining points. Multiply the years remaining
by the established point level. Once again, this could be
rebounds or whatever.
Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is
(projected remaining divided by need) - .5. If the need and
the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of
reaching the goal. If the projected remaining is 20% higher
than need, the chance would be 70%.
Points
| Player | 5000 | 6000 | 7000 | 8000 | 9000 | 10000 | 11000 | 12000 | 13000 | 14000 | 15000 | 16000 | 17000 |
| Diana Taurasi | 10646 | 10646 | 10646 | 10646 | 10646 | 10646 | 159% | 5% | |||||
| Tina Charles | 7696 | 7696 | 7696 | 99% | |||||||||
| DeWanna Bonner | 7482 | 7482 | 7482 | 99% | 10% | ||||||||
| Nneka Ogwumike | 6502 | 6502 | 99% | 46% | 8% | ||||||||
| Brittney Griner | 5572 | 99% | 21% | ||||||||||
| Jewell Loyd | 5536 | 99% | 99% | 92% | 51% | 28% | 14% | 4% | |||||
| Breanna Stewart | 5419 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 70% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 1% | |||
| A'ja Wilson | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 71% | 51% | 37% | 27% | 18% | 12% | 6% | 1% |
| Arike Ogunbowale | 99% | 99% | 99% | 86% | 59% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | 4% | |||
| Kelsey Mitchell | 99% | 99% | 91% | 56% | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | |||||
| Kahleah Copper | 99% | 99% | 61% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 1% | ||||||
| Kelsey Plum | 99% | 90% | 51% | 30% | 15% | 6% | |||||||
| Kayla McBride | 99% | 90% | 25% | 1% | |||||||||
| Jackie Young | 99% | 89% | 57% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 1% | |||||
| Sabrina Ionescu | 99% | 84% | 55% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 1% | |||||
| Napheesa Collier | 99% | 80% | 49% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 1% | ||||||
| Rhyne Howard | 99% | 73% | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 1% | |||||
| Allisha Gray | 99% | 71% | 37% | 18% | 6% | ||||||||
| Ariel Atkins | 99% | 57% | 31% | 15% | 4% | ||||||||
| Jonquel Jones | 99% | 48% | 18% | 3% | |||||||||
| Skylar Diggins | 99% | 27% | |||||||||||
| Marina Mabrey | 93% | 54% | 31% | 17% | 7% | ||||||||
| Natasha Howard | 93% | 26% | 2% | ||||||||||
| Chelsea Gray | 88% | 22% | |||||||||||
| Tiffany Hayes | 88% | ||||||||||||
| Dearica Hamby | 85% | 35% | 12% | ||||||||||
| Alyssa Thomas | 85% | 21% | |||||||||||
| Aliyah Boston | 79% | 52% | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 1% | ||||||
| Courtney Williams | 74% | 25% | 4% | ||||||||||
| Ezi Magbegor | 71% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 5% | ||||||||
| NaLyssa Smith | 68% | 43% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 1% | |||||||
| Elena Delle Donne | 52% | ||||||||||||
| Teaira McCowan | 46% | 21% | 7% | ||||||||||
| Caitlin Clark | 45% | 27% | 15% | 6% | |||||||||
| Brionna Jones | 41% | 17% | 3% | ||||||||||
| Brittney Sykes | 32% | 6% | |||||||||||
| Satou Sabally | 26% | 9% | |||||||||||
| DiJonai Carrington | 22% | 7% | |||||||||||
| Chennedy Carter | 21% | 6% | |||||||||||
| Sophie Cunningham | 14% | 1% | |||||||||||
| Courtney Vandersloot | 12% | ||||||||||||
| Jordin Canada | 11% | ||||||||||||
| Tyasha Harris | 10% | ||||||||||||
| Cheyenne Parker | 9% | ||||||||||||
| Rickea Jackson | 8% | ||||||||||||
| Michaela Onyenwere | 8% | ||||||||||||
| Betnijah Laney | 7% | ||||||||||||
| Dana Evans | 6% | ||||||||||||
| Angel Reese | 3% | ||||||||||||
| Natasha Cloud | 1% | ||||||||||||
| Azura Stevens | 1% | ||||||||||||
| Aari McDonald | 1% |
Rebounds
| Player | 3000 | 4000 | 5000 | 6000 | 7000 |
| Tina Charles | 4014 | 4014 | |||
| DeWanna Bonner | 3067 | ||||
| A'ja Wilson | 99% | 94% | 45% | 20% | 6% |
| Breanna Stewart | 99% | 50% | 13% | ||
| Jonquel Jones | 99% | 39% | 6% | ||
| Alyssa Thomas | 99% | 15% | |||
| Nneka Ogwumike | 99% | 11% | |||
| Teaira McCowan | 87% | 30% | 7% | ||
| Dearica Hamby | 82% | 17% | |||
| Aliyah Boston | 81% | 42% | 20% | 7% | |
| Ezi Magbegor | 77% | 35% | 14% | 1% | |
| NaLyssa Smith | 75% | 36% | 15% | 3% | |
| Napheesa Collier | 56% | 17% | |||
| Angel Reese | 42% | 16% | 1% | ||
| Monique Billings | 16% | ||||
| Sabrina Ionescu | 16% | ||||
| Natasha Howard | 14% | ||||
| Naz Hillmon | 12% | ||||
| Courtney Williams | 11% | ||||
| Alanna Smith | 6% | ||||
| Rhyne Howard | 5% | ||||
| Brianna Turner | 5% | ||||
| Brittney Griner | 4% | ||||
| Jackie Young | 4% | ||||
| Brionna Jones | 3% | ||||
| Jordan Horston | 3% | ||||
| Satou Sabally | 2% | ||||
| Myisha Hines-Allen | 2% | ||||
| Kiah Stokes | 2% | ||||
| Dorka Juhasz | 1% |
Assists
| Player | 2000 | 3000 | 3234 | 4000 |
| Courtney Vandersloot | 2850 | 164% | 33% | |
| Diana Taurasi | 2394 | |||
| Alyssa Thomas | 99% | 9% | 1% | |
| Chelsea Gray | 99% | 4% | ||
| Natasha Cloud | 99% | 1% | ||
| Sabrina Ionescu | 93% | 27% | 19% | 2% |
| Jackie Young | 57% | 8% | 3% | |
| Caitlin Clark | 56% | 16% | 11% | |
| Courtney Williams | 56% | 1% | ||
| Arike Ogunbowale | 46% | 3% | ||
| Jordin Canada | 46% | |||
| Kelsey Plum | 34% | |||
| Skylar Diggins | 22% | |||
| Marina Mabrey | 22% | |||
| Jewell Loyd | 12% | |||
| Breanna Stewart | 9% | |||
| Rhyne Howard | 9% |
All these are current as of the end of the 2024 season.