Projections

 

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Player Projections

Back in the 1980ís, Bill James developed something he called ďThe Favorite ToyĒ.  Itís used to determine a playerís chance of reaching a statistical goal.  He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical playthings.  Most of them are so specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.

Hereís how it works.

There are four things that need to be considered:

1 The need points.  The number of points needed to each the goal.  This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or whatever stat is being considered.

2 The years remaining.  This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age).  Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5.  Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age.  I used the playerís age as of July 1st.

3 The established point level.  Itís three times the most recent seasonís point total plus two times the season before plus one times the season before that, divided by 6.  Sylvia Fowles, for example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in 2009.  ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her established point level.  Again, this could be the established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration.  Players in their first or second year get 0ís for the previous seasons in which they did not play.

4 The projected remaining points.  Multiply the years remaining by the established point level.  Once again, this could be rebounds or whatever.

Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining divided by need) - .5.  If the need and the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.  If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be 70%.

One special rule, a playerís chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.

Iím sure thatís as clear as mud.  Feel free to ask questions!


Points

Player 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000
Diana Taurasi 10108 10108 10108 10108 10108 10108 21%
DeWanna Bonner 6881 6881 97% 27%
Candace Parker 6574 6574 46%
Nneka Ogwumike 5883 97% 97% 34% 7%
Brittney Griner 5038 67% 7%
Breanna Stewart 97% 97% 97% 93% 60% 40% 26% 15% 8% 1%
A'ja Wilson 97% 97% 97% 89% 63% 45% 32% 22% 14% 8% 3%
Jewell Loyd 97% 97% 97% 75% 45% 27% 14% 5%
Arike Ogunbowale 97% 97% 91% 62% 43% 29% 19% 11% 5% 1%
Kelsey Mitchell 97% 97% 64% 40% 25% 14% 6%
Jackie Young 97% 76% 51% 34% 21% 12% 5% 1%
Kelsey Plum 97% 72% 43% 26% 14% 5%
Kahleah Copper 97% 64% 36% 19% 8% 1%
Kayla McBride 97% 53% 16%
Chelsea Gray 97% 52% 21% 5%
Elena Delle Donne 97% 9%
Sabrina Ionescu 91% 59% 38% 25% 14% 7% 1%
Allisha Gray 90% 46% 24% 10% 1%
Rhyne Howard 86% 57% 39% 26% 16% 8% 2%
Jonquel Jones 82% 36% 14% 1%
Napheesa Collier 75% 43% 24% 12% 3%
Natasha Howard 74% 27% 5%
Marina Mabrey 71% 42% 25% 13% 4%
Alyssa Thomas 66% 20% 1%
Ariel Atkins 65% 34% 16% 4%
Tiffany Hayes 65%
Brittney Sykes 63% 29% 11%
Skylar Diggins 62%
Courtney Williams 62% 24% 6%
Ezi Magbegor 56% 34% 20% 9% 2%
NaLyssa Smith 49% 29% 16% 7% 1%
Satou Sabally 44% 25% 12% 2%
Teaira McCowan 31% 12% 1%
Cheyenne Parker 28% 7%
Jordin Canada 25% 8%
Dearica Hamby 24% 2%
Aliyah Boston 24% 10% 1%
Brionna Jones 20% 4%
Azura Stevens 17% 2%
Betnijah Laney 14%
Michaela Onyenwere 14% 2%
Courtney Vandersloot 13%
Natisha Hiedeman 12%
Sophie Cunningham 11%
Tiffany Mitchell 4%
Moriah Jefferson 4%
Crystal Dangerfield 1%

 

Rebounds

Player 3000 4000 4006 5000 6000
Candace Parker 3467
A'ja Wilson 97% 62% 62% 29% 11%
Breanna Stewart 97% 42% 42% 12%
Jonquel Jones 97% 31% 31% 4%
Nneka Ogwumike 97% 7% 7%
DeWanna Bonner 97%
Alyssa Thomas 68% 7% 7%
Teaira McCowan 65% 23% 23% 3%
Brianna Turner 52% 17% 16%
Ezi Magbegor 51% 21% 21% 4%
NaLyssa Smith 47% 19% 19% 3%
Dearica Hamby 36% 1% 1%
Sabrina Ionescu 24% 2% 2%
Natasha Howard 24%
Aliyah Boston 21% 1% 1%
Napheesa Collier 20%
Courtney Williams 16%
Satou Sabally 14%
Monique Billings 11%
Elizabeth Williams 9%
Cheyenne Parker 8%
Shakira Austin 7%
Queen Egbo 5%
Rhyne Howard 4%
Jackie Young 3%
Jessica Shepard 3%
Kiah Stokes 2%
Azura Stevens 1%
Brittney Griner 1%

 

Assists

Player 2000 3000 3234
Courtney Vandersloot 2701 86% 27%
Diana Taurasi 2272
Chelsea Gray 97% 24% 14%
Sabrina Ionescu 71% 20% 14%
Natasha Cloud 63%
Jordin Canada 61% 9% 3%
Alyssa Thomas 52%
Courtney Williams 36%
Kelsey Plum 32%
Jackie Young 31%
Arike Ogunbowale 26%
Marina Mabrey 11%
Jewell Loyd 11%
Kelsey Mitchell 6%
Rhyne Howard 6%
Breanna Stewart 5%
Erica Wheeler 2%
Moriah Jefferson 1%

 

 

All these are current as of the end of the 2023 season.