Projections

 

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Back in the 1980ís, Bill James developed something he called ďThe Favorite ToyĒ.  Itís used to determine a playerís chance of reaching a statistical goal.  He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical playthings.  Most of them are so specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.

Hereís how it works.

There are four things that need to be considered:

1 The need points.  The number of points needed to each the goal.  This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or whatever stat is being considered.

2 The years remaining.  This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age).  Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5.  Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age.  I used the playerís age as of July 1st.

3 The established point level.  Itís three times the most recent seasonís point total plus two times the season before plus one times the season before that, divided by 6.  Sylvia Fowles, for example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in 2009.  ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her established point level.  Again, this could be the established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration.  Players in their first or second year get 0ís for the previous seasons in which they did not play.

4 The projected remaining points.  Multiply the years remaining by the established point level.  Once again, this could be rebounds or whatever.

Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining divided by need) - .5.  If the need and the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.  If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be 70%.

One special rule, a playerís chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.

Iím sure thatís as clear as mud.  Feel free to ask questions!


Points

Player 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000
Diana Taurasi 8931 8931 8931 8931 97%
Candice Dupree 6728 6728 97%
Sue Bird 6262 6262
Seimone Augustus 6005 6005
Tina Charles 5982 97% 59% 5%
Angel McCoughtry 5785 97%
Candace Parker 5684 97%
Sylvia Fowles 5487 39%
DeWanna Bonner 97% 97% 38% 6%
Nneka Ogwumike 97% 63% 21% 1%
Brittney Griner 97% 58% 23% 6%
A'ja Wilson 87% 56% 36% 23% 13% 6% 1%
Jewell Loyd 72% 34% 15% 2%
Elena Delle Donne 68% 13%
Arike Ogunbowale 66% 42% 27% 15% 7% 1%
Kayla McBride 57% 23% 5%
Kelsey Mitchell 53% 31% 17% 7%
Breanna Stewart 52% 24% 8%
Chelsea Gray 48% 22% 7%
Courtney Williams 32% 13% 1%
Ariel Atkins 30% 14% 3%
Skylar Diggins 29% 2%
Natasha Howard 27% 8%
Odyssey Sims 27% 4%
Alyssa Thomas 26% 5%
Kia Nurse 26% 11% 1%
Napheesa Collier 26% 11% 1%
Jasmine Thomas 20%
Allisha Gray 19% 4%
Dearica Hamby 18% 2%
Diamond DeShields 16% 2%
Tiffany Mitchell 15% 1%
Tiffany Hayes 13%
Courtney Vandersloot 12%
Kahleah Copper 10%
Liz Cambage 8%
Emma Meesseman 7%
Brittney Sykes 5%
Elizabeth Williams 2%
Jonquel Jones 2%
Teaira McCowan 2%
Cheyenne Parker 1%

 

Rebounds

Player 3000 4000
Sylvia Fowles 3400 1%
Tina Charles 3133 3%
Candice Dupree 3066
Candace Parker 97%
Nneka Ogwumike 40%
DeWanna Bonner 35%
A'ja Wilson 29% 6%
Alyssa Thomas 29%
Teaira McCowan 20% 1%
Dearica Hamby 17%
Napheesa Collier 16%
Natasha Howard 13%
Brittney Griner 13%
Monique Billings 12%
Elizabeth Williams 8%
Breanna Stewart 5%
Jonquel Jones 4%
Courtney Williams 4%
Brianna Turner 1%

 

Assists

Player 2000 3000
Sue Bird 2888 38%
Courtney Vandersloot 97% 37%
Diana Taurasi 97%
Chelsea Gray 37%
Jordin Canada 19%
Jasmine Thomas 18%
Odyssey Sims 6%
Jackie Young 1%

 

Steals

Player 500
Angel McCoughtry 626
Nneka Ogwumike 97%
Alyssa Thomas 90%
Natasha Howard 66%
Jordin Canada 53%
Napheesa Collier 53%
Gabby Williams 28%

 

Blocks
Player 500 877 1000
Brittney Griner 658 61% 21%
Sylvia Fowles 630
Candace Parker 545
Elizabeth Williams 97% 1%
A'ja Wilson 76% 11% 3%
Natahsa Howard 32%
Jonquel Jones 24%

 

 

 

All these are current as of the end of the 2020 season.