Projections

 

Home

Coaches

Milestones

Projections

Player Register

Awards
Player Projections

Back in the 1980ís, Bill James developed something he called ďThe Favorite ToyĒ.  Itís used to determine a playerís chance of reaching a statistical goal.  He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical playthings.  Most of them are so specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.

Hereís how it works.

There are four things that need to be considered:

1 The need points.  The number of points needed to each the goal.  This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or whatever stat is being considered.

2 The years remaining.  This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age).  Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5.  Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age.  I used the playerís age as of July 1st.

3 The established point level.  Itís three times the most recent seasonís point total plus two times the season before plus one times the season before that, divided by 6.  Sylvia Fowles, for example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in 2009.  ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her established point level.  Again, this could be the established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration.  Players in their first or second year get 0ís for the previous seasons in which they did not play.

4 The projected remaining points.  Multiply the years remaining by the established point level.  Once again, this could be rebounds or whatever.

Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining divided by need) - .5.  If the need and the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.  If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be 70%.

One special rule, a playerís chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.

Iím sure thatís as clear as mud.  Feel free to ask questions!


Points

Player 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000
Diana Taurasi 8575 8575 8575 8575 68%
Candice Dupree 6452 6452 68%
Sue Bird 6154 6154
Tina Charles 5982 97% 97% 86% 41% 18% 5%
Seimone Augustus 5881 97%
Angel McCoughtry 5468 40%
Sylvia Fowles 5385 97% 25%
Candace Parker 5360 91% 5%
Brittney Griner 97% 97% 67% 40% 23% 11% 3%
Nneka Ogwumike 97% 97% 53% 27% 11% 1%
DeWanna Bonner 97% 97% 34% 8%
Elena Delle Donne 97% 93% 48% 24% 10% 1%
Maya Moore 97% 84% 17%
Tiffany Hayes 97% 45% 19% 4%
Jewell Loyd 90% 51% 29% 15% 5%
Kayla McBride 87% 47% 25% 11% 2%
Kristi Toliver 87% 11%
Chelsea Gray 72% 42% 24% 12% 3%
A'ja Wilson 69% 45% 29% 17% 9%
Odyssey Sims 66% 33% 15% 3%
Jonquel Jones 66% 39% 22% 11% 3%
Liz Cambage 61% 34% 17% 6%
Breanna Stewart 58% 31% 14% 4%
Crystal Langhorne 56%
Jasmine Thomas 52% 19% 2%
Natasha Howard 52% 27% 13% 2%
Diamond DeShields 50% 30% 16% 7% 1%
Courtney Williams 47% 26% 12% 3%
Kelsey Mitchell 39% 22% 10% 2%
Allisha Gray 33% 16% 5%
Alyssa Thomas 32% 12%
Kia Nurse 28% 13% 3%
Skylar Diggins 26% 3%
Arike Ogunbowale 26% 12% 2%
Brittney Sykes 23% 8%
Tiffany Mitchell 23% 8%
Stefanie Dolson 22% 4%
Courtney Vandersloot 19%
Dearica Hamby 19% 5%
Ariel Atkins 18% 5%
Renee Montgomery 16%
Elizabeth Williams 14% 1%
Alex Bentley 14%
Kelsey Plum 13% 1%
Glory Johnson 12%
Alana Beard 11%
Chiney Ogwumike 11%
Shekinna Stricklen 6%
Natalie Achonwa 6%
Erica Wheeler 4%
Bria Hartley 3%
Emma Meesseman 2%
Napheesa Collier 1%
Kayla Thornton 1%
Cheyenne Parker 1%
Kahleah Copper 1%

 

Rebounds

Player 3000 3356 4000 5000
Sylvia Fowles 3332 97% 66%
Tina Charles 3133 97% 82% 11%
Candice Dupree 97% 18%
Candace Parker 95% 18%
Nneka Ogwumike 89% 54% 21%
Jonquel Jones 75% 55% 32% 12%
Brittney Griner 46% 27% 7%
Alyssa Thomas 36% 22% 6%
DeWanna Bonner 36% 12%
Elizabeth Williams 28% 16% 2%
Glory Johnson 26% 10%
Liz Cambage 25% 14% 1%
Natasha Howard 22% 12%
Dearica Hamby 21% 11%
Elena Delle Donne 21% 8%
A'ja Wilson 20% 12% 1%
Breanna Stewart 11% 2%
Courtney Williams 11% 3%
Teaira McCowan 9% 2%
Crystal Langhorne 9%
Jessica Breland 8%
Stefanie Dolson 7%
Natalie Achonwa 7%
Cheyenne Parker 6%
Chiney Ogwumike 4%
Diamond DeShields 1%

 

Assists

Player 2000 3000 4000
Sue Bird 2831 45%
Courtney Vandersloot 97% 43% 3%
Chelsea Gray 56% 10%
Diana Taurasi 50%
Jasmine Thomas 46%
Odyssey Sims 35%
Natasha Cloud 22%
Erica Wheeler 15%
Brittany Boyd 15%
Jordin Canada 14%
Kelsey Plum 9%
Danielle Robinson 6%
Courtney Williams 2%
Kristi Toliver 1%
Skylar Diggins 1%
Alyssa Thomas 1%

 

Steals

Player 500 1000
Alana Beard 709
Angel McCoughtry 597
Nneka Ogwumike 97% 3%
Maya Moore 97%
Alyssa Thomas 90%
Jasmine Thomas 80%
Natasha Howard 72%
Allisha Gray 60%
Jordin Canada 57%
Candace Parker 40%
Napheesa Collier 28%
Gabby Williams 25%

 

Blocks
Player 500 877 1000
Brittney Griner 636 97% 67%
Sylvia Fowles 621
Candace Parker 518
Elizabeth Williams 97% 22% 9%
Jonquel Jones 97% 18% 8%
Natahsa Howard 79% 6%
A'ja Wilson 57% 5%
Jessica Breland 56%
Liz Cambage 42%
Breanna Stewart 18%

 

 

All these are current as of the end of the 2018 season.