Back in the 1980ís, Bill James developed something he called ďThe Favorite ToyĒ. Itís used to determine a playerís chance of reaching a statistical goal. He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical playthings. Most of them are so specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.
Hereís how it works.
There are four things that need to be considered:
1 The need points. The number of points needed to each the goal. This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or whatever stat is being considered.
2 The years remaining. This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age). Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5. Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age. I used the playerís age as of July 1st.
3 The established point level. Itís three times the most recent seasonís point total plus two times the season before plus one times the season before that, divided by 6. Sylvia Fowles, for example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in 2009. ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her established point level. Again, this could be the established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration. Players in their first or second year get 0ís for the previous seasons in which they did not play.
4 The projected remaining points. Multiply the years remaining by the established point level. Once again, this could be rebounds or whatever.
Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining divided by need) - .5. If the need and the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal. If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be 70%.
One special rule, a playerís chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.
Iím sure thatís as clear as mud. Feel free to ask questions!
All these are current as of the end of the 2020 season.