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Player Projections

 

Back in the 1980ís, Bill James developed something he called ďThe Favorite ToyĒ.  Itís used to determine a playerís chance of reaching a statistical goal.  He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical playthings.  Most of them are so specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.

 

Hereís how it works.

There are four things that need to be considered:

1 The need points.  The number of points needed to each the goal.  This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or whatever stat is being considered.

2 The years remaining.  This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age).  Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5.  Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age.  I used the playerís age as of July 1st.

3 The established point level.  Itís three times the most recent seasonís point total plus two times the season before plus one times the season before that, divided by 6.  Sylvia Fowles, for example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in 2009.  ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her established point level.  Again, this could be the established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration.  Players in their first or second year get 0ís for the previous seasons in which they did not play.

4 The projected remaining points.  Multiply the years remaining by the established point level.  Once again, this could be rebounds or whatever.

Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining divided by need) - .5.  If the need and the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.  If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be 70%.

One special rule, a playerís chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.

Iím sure thatís as clear as mud.  Feel free to ask questions!

Points

Player 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000
Diana Taurasi 7867 7867 7867 97% 13%
Cappie Pondexter 6591 6591 80%
Sue Bird 5840 97%
Candice Dupree 5602 97% 46% 6%
Seimone Augustus 5479 88%
Lindsay Whalen 5341 6%
Tina Charles 97% 97% 97% 73% 44% 26% 14% 5%
Maya Moore 97% 97% 93% 54% 31% 17% 7%
Nneka Ogwumike 97% 97% 67% 43% 27% 16% 7% 1%
Angel McCoughtry 97% 96% 24%
Candace Parker 97% 81% 27% 5%
Jewell Loyd 97% 70% 48% 33% 22% 13% 6% 1%
Breanna Stewart 97% 69% 48% 34% 23% 14% 8% 2%
Sylvia Fowles 97% 67% 24% 4%
Elena Delle Donne 97% 64% 38% 22% 10% 2%
Crystal Langhorne 97% 40% 9%
Brittney Griner 94% 55% 33% 18% 8% 1%
Tiffany Hayes 77% 42% 22% 9% 1%
Skylar Diggins 68% 38% 20% 8% 1%
Kristi Toliver 66% 21% 1%
Emma Meesseman 60% 34% 18% 8% 1%
Odyssey Sims 51% 28% 13% 3%
DeWanna Bonner 47% 6%
Kayla McBride 44% 23% 9% 1%
Jasmine Thomas 44% 20% 6%
Stefanie Dolson 42% 22% 9% 1%
Alyssa Thomas 40% 20% 8%
Karima Christmas 30% 11%
Glory Johnson 29% 9%
Chelsea Gray 29% 13% 3%
Alex Bentley 28% 10%
Jonquel Jones 28% 13% 3%
Alana Beard 25%
Elizabeth Williams 20% 6%
Sugar Rodgers 20% 5%
Layshia Clarendon 15% 2%
Jantel Lavender 14%
Tayler Hill 14% 1%
Shavonte Zellous 13%
Courtney Vandersloot 11%
Bria Holmes 9%
Epiphanny Prince 8%
Courtney Williams 7%
Monique Currie 7%
Moriah Jefferson 7%
Tiffany Mitchell 6%
Erica Wheeler 5%
Renee Montgomery 4%
Dearica Hamby 4%
Jia Perkins 4%
Ivory Latta 3%
Allisha Gray 1%
Brittney Sykes 1%
Shenise Johnson 1%

 

Rebounds

Player 3000 3316 4000 5000 6000
Rebekkah Brunson 3187 97%
Tina Charles 97% 97% 89% 30% 6%
Sylvia Fowles 97% 97% 32%
Candace Parker 82% 41% 5%
Nneka Ogwumike 77% 55% 27% 5%
Candice Dupree 76% 22%
Crystal Langhorne 67% 32% 1%
Breanna Stewart 59% 46% 27% 10%
Jonquel Jones 46% 35% 18% 3%
Glory Johnson 38% 24% 6%
Elizabeth Williams 35% 25% 10%
Brittney Griner 31% 20% 3%
Kiah Stokes 30% 21% 6%
Sancho Lyttle 26%
Alyssa Thomas 21% 12%
Emma Meesseman 19% 11%
Maya Moore 18% 7%
Stefanie Dolson 15% 7%
Elena Delle Donne 11% 3%
Courtney Paris 10% 1%
Karima Christmas 2%
Dearica Hamby 1%

 

Assists

Player 2000 3000
Sue Bird 2610 23%
Lindsay Whalen 2249
Courtney Vandersloot 80% 11%
Jasmine Thomas 31%
Layshia Clarendon 31%
Skylar Diggins 25%
Odyssey Sims 16%
Maya Moore 14%
Jewell Loyd 12%
Chelsea Gray 11%
Candace Parker 4%
Moriah Jefferson 2%
Alyssa Thomas 1%

 

Steals

Player 500 1000 1074
Alana Beard 654
Jia Perkins 635
Sancho Lyttle 606
Angel McCoughtry 559
Maya Moore 97% 8% 2%
Nneka Ogwumike 97% 2%
Candace Parker 69%
Jasmine Thomas 68%
Karima Christmas 61%
Alyssa Thomas 60%
Epiphanny Prince 51%
Lindsay Whalen 49%
Moriah Jefferson 32%
Skylar Diggins 31%
Allisha Gray 11%
Brittany Boyd 4%

 

Blocks
Player 500 877 1000 1500
Sylvia Fowles 532 14%
Brittney Griner 97% 97% 75% 13%
Elizabeth Williams 97% 30% 18%
Candace Parker 97%
Breanna Stewart 81% 16% 7%
Kiah Stokes 60% 3%
Elena Delle Donne 54%
Jessica Breland 42%
Jonquel Jones 39%

 

 

All these are current as of the end of the 2016 season.

 

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