Back in the 1980’s, Bill James developed something he called “The Favorite
Toy”. It’s used to determine a player’s chance of reaching a
statistical goal. He developed it for baseball, along with
many other statistical playthings. Most of them are so
specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport,
but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.
Here’s how it works.
There are four things that need to be considered:
1 The need points. The number of points needed to each the
goal. This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or
whatever stat is being considered.
2 The years remaining. This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age). Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5. Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age. I used the player’s age as of July 1st.
3 The established point level. It’s three times the most
recent season’s point total plus two times the season before plus one times
the season before that, divided by 6. Sylvia Fowles, for
example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in
2009. ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her
established point level. Again, this could be the established
rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration. Players
in their first or second year get 0’s for the previous seasons in which they
did not play.
4 The projected remaining points. Multiply the years remaining
by the established point level. Once again, this could be
rebounds or whatever.
Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is
(projected remaining divided by need) - .5. If the need and
the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of
reaching the goal. If the projected remaining is 20% higher
than need, the chance would be 70%.
Points
| Player | 5000 | 6000 | 7000 | 8000 | 9000 | 10000 | 10646 | 11000 | 12000 | 13000 | 14000 | 15000 | 16000 | 17000 |
| Tina Charles | 8396 | 8396 | 8396 | 8396 | 85% | 1% | ||||||||
| DeWanna Bonner | 7807 | 7807 | 7807 | 99% | 10% | |||||||||
| Nneka Ogwumike | 7305 | 7305 | 7305 | 99% | 14% | |||||||||
| Jewell Loyd | 6027 | 6027 | 99% | 73% | 31% | 11% | 2% | |||||||
| Breanna Stewart | 5985 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 54% | 28% | 17% | 12% | 2% | |||||
| Brittney Griner | 5954 | 99% | 16% | |||||||||||
| A'ja Wilson | 5719 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 85% | 67% | 59% | 42% | 29% | 20% | 12% | 6% | 1% |
| Skylar Diggins | 5489 | 99% | 3% | |||||||||||
| Kayla McBride | 5389 | 99% | 29% | |||||||||||
| Kelsey Mitchell | 99% | 99% | 99% | 85% | 53% | 33% | 24% | 20% | 10% | 3% | ||||
| Arike Ogunbowale | 99% | 99% | 99% | 60% | 36% | 20% | 13% | 10% | 2% | |||||
| Napheesa Collier | 99% | 99% | 79% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 3% | |||||
| Jackie Young | 99% | 99% | 77% | 49% | 32% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 3% | |||||
| Kelsey Plum | 99% | 99% | 73% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | ||||||
| Sabrina Ionescu | 99% | 99% | 65% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 10% | 8% | 1% | |||||
| Allisha Gray | 99% | 99% | 61% | 32% | 15% | 4% | ||||||||
| Aliyah Boston | 99% | 92% | 65% | 46% | 33% | 23% | 18% | 15% | 9% | 3% | ||||
| Kahleah Copper | 99% | 90% | 42% | 19% | 5% | |||||||||
| Dearica Hamby | 99% | 86% | 40% | 17% | 3% | |||||||||
| Rhyne Howard | 99% | 79% | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 5% | ||||||
| Ariel Atkins | 99% | 58% | 28% | 11% | 1% | |||||||||
| Marina Mabrey | 99% | 54% | 29% | 13% | 3% | |||||||||
| Courtney Williams | 99% | 50% | 16% | |||||||||||
| Jonquel Jones | 99% | 42% | 11% | |||||||||||
| Alyssa Thomas | 99% | 31% | ||||||||||||
| Chelsea Gray | 99% | 30% | ||||||||||||
| Natasha Howard | 99% | 21% | ||||||||||||
| Tiffany Hayes | 99% | |||||||||||||
| Brionna Jones | 67% | 31% | 12% | 1% | ||||||||||
| Ezi Magbegor | 63% | 35% | 18% | 7% | ||||||||||
| Satou Sabally | 61% | 32% | 15% | 4% | ||||||||||
| Brittney Sykes | 58% | 16% | ||||||||||||
| NaLyssa Smith | 56% | 31% | 16% | 6% | ||||||||||
| Rickea Jackson | 55% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 2% | |||||||||
| Angel Reese | 39% | 22% | 10% | 1% | ||||||||||
| Caitlin Clark | 38% | 21% | 9% | 1% | ||||||||||
| Sonia Citron | 35% | 19% | 8% | 1% | ||||||||||
| Kamilla Cardoso | 32% | 16% | 5% | |||||||||||
| Paige Bueckers | 28% | 14% | 3% | |||||||||||
| Azura Stevens | 27% | 7% | ||||||||||||
| Kiki Iriafen | 24% | 11% | 1% | |||||||||||
| Shakira Austin | 24% | 9% | ||||||||||||
| DiJonai Carrington | 17% | 3% | ||||||||||||
| Veronica Burton | 17% | 4% | ||||||||||||
| Naz Hillmon | 9% | |||||||||||||
| Alanna Smith | 9% | |||||||||||||
| Natisha Hiedeman | 8% | |||||||||||||
| Dana Evans | 8% | |||||||||||||
| Jordin Canada | 7% | |||||||||||||
| Michaela Onyenwere | 7% | |||||||||||||
| Teaira McCowan | 6% | |||||||||||||
| Kia Nurse | 6% | |||||||||||||
| Gabby Williams | 5% | |||||||||||||
| Sophie Cunningham | 4% | |||||||||||||
| Maddy Siegrist | 3% |
Rebounds
| Player | 3000 | 4000 | 5000 | 6000 | 7000 | 8000 |
| Tina Charles | 4262 | 4262 | 1% | |||
| Nneka Ogwumike | 3268 | 12% | ||||
| DeWanna Bonner | 3204 | |||||
| A'ja Wilson | 99% | 99% | 50% | 21% | 6% | |
| Aliyah Boston | 99% | 67% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 1% |
| Angel Reese | 99% | 53% | 29% | 13% | 3% | |
| Breanna Stewart | 99% | 30% | ||||
| Jonquel Jones | 99% | 28% | ||||
| Dearica Hamby | 99% | 25% | ||||
| Alyssa Thomas | 99% | 13% | ||||
| Ezi Magbegor | 85% | 36% | 13% | 1% | ||
| NaLyssa Smith | 69% | 29% | 9% | |||
| Napheesa Collier | 64% | 18% | ||||
| Kamilla Cardoso | 45% | 17% | 2% | |||
| Teaira McCowan | 35% | |||||
| Naz Hillmon | 32% | 7% | ||||
| Kiki Iriafen | 31% | 8% | ||||
| Brionna Jones | 29% | |||||
| Azura Stevens | 27% | |||||
| Natasha Howard | 20% | |||||
| Shakira Austin | 16% | |||||
| Satou Sabally | 14% | |||||
| Brittney Griner | 13% | |||||
| Courtney Williams | 13% | |||||
| Alanna Smith | 11% | |||||
| Sabrina Ionescu | 11% | |||||
| Myisha Hines-Allen | 11% | |||||
| Jackie Young | 10% | |||||
| Allisha Gray | 5% | |||||
| Aneesah Morrow | 4% | |||||
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa | 3% | |||||
| Rhyne Howard | 2% | |||||
| Monique Billings | 1% | |||||
| Aaliyah Edwards | 1% |
Assists
| Player | 2000 | 3000 | 3234 | 4000 |
| Courtney Vandersloot | 2887 | 99% | 2% | |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 99% | 26% | 18% | 1% |
| Alyssa Thomas | 99% | 14% | 4% | |
| Chelsea Gray | 99% | 6% | ||
| Natasha Cloud | 99% | |||
| Courtney Williams | 98% | 8% | 1% | |
| Jackie Young | 92% | 20% | 12% | |
| Skylar Diggins | 89% | |||
| Kelsey Plum | 65% | 1% | ||
| Caitlin Clark | 57% | 15% | 10% | |
| Veronica Burton | 49% | 9% | 4% | |
| Jordin Canada | 45% | |||
| Arike Ogunbowale | 34% | |||
| Rhyne Howard | 21% | |||
| Marina Mabrey | 20% | |||
| Sug Sutton | 15% | |||
| Paige Bueckers | 2% | |||
| Kelsey Mitchell | 2% | |||
| Breanna Stewart | 2% | |||
| Jade Melbourne | 2% |
All these are current as of the end of the 2025 season.